Green on the screen across commodities post-WASDE — a LIVE! with Jon Driedger
Struggling with what to make of the markets lately? Moving the market, in this moment, is the latest WASDE report; and to help break it down for us is Jon Driedger of Leftfield Commodity Research, joining host Shaun Haney for today’s RealAg LIVE!
Tune in for a new LIVE! Q&A every weekday at 3 pm Eastern!
- Near month in corn and soybeans went nuts today!
- Chicago wheat is up too
- GREEN ON THE SCREEN
- What’s going on?
- Tight ending stocks, y’all
- 172 on the corn yield for USDA, 2020 in the face of strong demand. The combination is just feeding this bull
- 10 bushels an acre “lost” on U.S. corn production. How does that even happen?! It’s quite something
- Why is the market up so dramatically when ending stocks aren’t that different? Could be that the smaller demand numbers are being made to fit
- Do big export commitments overseas (China) get moved forward, cancelled? It does happen
- How in the heck are we even suggesting corn prices with a six in the front. What the heck, versus last year.
- Demand rationing happens at higher prices, we know that, but that rationing takes time
- And scrambling for what’s left of ending stocks drives things up quickly
- Exciting could be good exciting or not good exciting
- Soybeans, now. Slightly less dramatic numbers, more in line, however still a tight balance sheet
- South American production numbers down a little
- China buys when they need to: how much can be credited to Trump’s trade policy? Similar spikes in other countries and other commodities — so probably a limited impact
- Futures popped just ahead of the WASDE — what happened there? Likely just some momentum heading in
- What about wheat? Carryout has been trending downwards for a few years, but it’s got some support and tailwind from other crops
- Buying appetites have been variable, and basis has been noisy. Be patient, shop around.
- Unsold inventory on ’20? Cha-ching!
- Volatility often means steep decline…but there’s still some upside yet. But for how long?
- Reward rallies with smaller increments, and leave some bullets in the chamber
- New crop is edging upward, too. Don’t get too fixated on what was sold early, especially at a profit
- Canola inventory is tight. Ration demand out of export markets when global supply is low is a challenge. Bottom line: some upside potential.
- Bludgeon demand to keep carryout to a reasonable minimum
- Make sure you’re keeping track of the signals of when this bull begins to slow
- Hard red wheat acres might pull back a little
- Strong crop prices all around could mean rotations stay strong. Yay!
- Funds: where are they at?