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StatsCan Production Estimates on Low Side of Expectations

By: Kelvin Heppner

August 21, 2015

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There will be less wheat and slightly less canola grown in Canada this year than what analysts were expecting, if the first production estimates from Statistics Canada are to be believed.

Prior to the report’s release on Friday morning, trade guesses for total wheat production ranged from 24.8 to 27.1 million metric tonnes. StatsCan pegged all-wheat at 24.6MMT, down 15.9 percent from last year.

The agency projected canola production of 13.3MMT, slightly below the average analyst estimate of 13.6MMT and a decrease of 14.2 percent from 2014.

The barley production estimate was on the high side of what analysts were anticipating, while the oat and pea numbers were largely in line with expectations. The durum estimate from StatsCan was slightly lower than the average trade guess.

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For the first time since 2007, Canadian soybean production is expected to drop in 2015, with production reported at 5.9 million tonnes, down 3.2 percent from 2014.

Grain corn production is expected to increase 7.2 percent to 12.3 million tonnes in 2015.

For context, the StatsCan report was based on a survey of about 13,000 farms between July 22 and August 3, before late season rains arrived in parts of Western Canada.

StatsCan will release modelled yield and production estimates derived from remote sensing, survey and agroclimatic data sources on September 17. Final production estimates will be published on December 4.

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